数学学院（珠海）五周年院庆系列学术报告（十二）：Disease outbreaks on the move: insights from reaction-diffusion epidemic models and analyses

讲座时间 Datetime: 

星期六, 2020/12/12 - 从 09:30 到 10:30

地点 Venue: 

腾讯会议 344 798 154

报告人 Speaker: 

吴建宏 教授

单位 Affiliation: 

York University

报告摘要 Abstract: 

We use the Fisher-KPP epidemic model to describe how epidemic outbreaks move in space and time. The first such study, published in a SIAM J. Math Analysis (Jian Fang, Yijun Lou and Jianhong Wu, 2016) was motivated by climate impact on vector-borne disease spread, but this formulation can also be used to address issues about the patterns of COVID-19 spread in the social contact space. In particular, we consider a reaction-diffusion equation in a wave-like shifting environment for which the wave profile of the environment is given by a monotonically decreasing function changing signs (shifting from favorable to unfavorable environment). In the context of ecological invasion and vector-borne disease propagation, this type of equation arises naturally from the consideration of pathogen spread in a classical SIS epidemiological model of a host population where the disease impact on host mobility and mortality is negligible. We show that there are three different scenarios depending on the disease transmission rate, the disease spread patterns include extinction; spread in pace with the host invasion; spread not in a wave format and slower than the host invasion. We also discuss some relevant theoretical advance about the solvability of a related elliptic equation in the critical cases.